Central Asia’s Vast Biofuel Opportunity
The current revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have misshaped key oil forecasts under extreme U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers rarely come forward to advance their professions), a slow-burning atomic surge on future international oil production. The Bush administration’s actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves have the possible to toss governments’ long-lasting preparation into mayhem.
Whatever the truth, rising long term international needs appear particular to overtake production in the next years, particularly provided the high and increasing costs of establishing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan’s overseas Kashagan and Brazil’s southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.
In such a situation, ingredients and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and rising prices drive this innovation to the leading edge, one of the wealthiest potential production locations has been completely overlooked by investors already – Central Asia. Formerly the USSR’s cotton “plantation,” the area is poised to end up being a significant gamer in the production of biofuels if sufficient foreign investment can be acquired. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is made mainly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is primarily distilled from corn, Central Asia’s ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.
Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom because of record-high energy costs, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing manufacturer of gas.
Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and relatively scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have actually mainly prevented their capability to money in on rising global energy demands up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain mainly reliant for their electrical requirements on their Soviet-era hydroelectric infrastructure, however their heightened requirement to produce winter electrical power has actually caused autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn significantly impacting the farming of their western downstream neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
What these 3 downstream countries do have however is a Soviet-era legacy of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan’s and Turkmenistan case was mostly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev’s “Virgin Lands” programs, has become a major producer of wheat. Based on my discussions with Central Asian federal government authorities, offered the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have excellent appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser degree Astana for those sturdy financiers going to bet on the future, specifically as a plant indigenous to the region has actually currently proven itself in trials.
Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is attracting increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American companies already examining how to produce it in business quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historic test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the very first Asian carrier to try out flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks throughout a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo’s Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month evaluation of camelina’s functional performance ability and possible business practicality.
As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to advise it. It has a high oil content low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia’s thirsty “king cotton,” camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be used as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia’s major wheat exporter. Another bonus of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce approximately 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A heap (1000 kg) of camelina will consist of 350 kg of oil, of which pushing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is squandered as after processing, the plant’s debris can be used for animals silage. Camelina silage has an especially appealing concentration of omega-3 fats that make it a particularly great livestock feed prospect that is simply now acquiring recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and contends well versus weeds when an even crop is developed. According to Britain’s Bangor University’s Centre for Alternative Land Use, “Camelina could be a perfect low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape.”
Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a brand-new crop on the scene: historical evidence indicates it has actually been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of three millennia to produce both veggie oil and animal fodder.
Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research study, revealed a wide variety of results of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil content differing between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been figured out to be in the 6-8 pound per acre variety, as the seeds’ small size of 400,000 seeds per pound can produce issues in germination to accomplish an optimal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.
Camelina’s potential might permit Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous tradition, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has deformed the country’s attempts at agrarian reform since accomplishing self-reliance in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian federal government determined that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow’s growing textile industry. The process was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also ordered by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce “white gold.”
By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually ended up being self-sufficient in cotton; 5 decades later on it had actually become a significant exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world’s production, concentrated in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union’s output.
Try as it might to diversify, in the absence of alternatives Tashkent stays wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million loads annually, which generates more than $1 billion while making up around 60 percent of the nation’s hard currency earnings.
Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet government’s directives for Central Asian cotton production mainly bankrupted the region’s scarcest resource, water. Cotton uses about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet organizers to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the region’s 2 main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into inefficient watering canals, resulting in the dramatic shrinking of the rivers’ final location, the Aral Sea. The Aral, when the world’s fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 26,000 square miles, has shrunk to one-quarter its initial size in among the 20th century’s worst environmental catastrophes.
And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University recently described camelina’s service model to Capital Press as: “At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would generate $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would amass $230.”
Central Asia has the land, the farms, the irrigation infrastructure and a modest wage scale in contrast to America or Europe – all that’s missing is the foreign investment. U.S. investors have the cash and access to the proficiency of America’s land grant universities. What is specific is that share will grow in time; less certain is who will reap the benefits of establishing it as a practical concern in Central Asia.
If the recent past is anything to pass it is unlikely to be American and European financiers, fixated as they are on Caspian oil and gas.
But while the Japanese flight experiments show Asian interest, American investors have the scholastic knowledge, if they want to follow the Silk Road into establishing a new market. Certainly anything that decreases water usage and pesticides, diversifies crop production and enhances the lot of their agrarian population will receive most cautious factor to consider from Central Asia’s governments, and farming and grease processing plants are not just much more affordable than pipelines, they can be developed quicker.
And jatropha‘s biofuel capacity? Another story for another time.
